Year of 2026 might see a milestone in fundamental change of military and
political framework in the world. The Ukrainian War with Russia now falls in a
chaotic stage involved deeply with the United States, more accurately to say,
President Trump’s prospectus. It seems
that Trump is in a hurry to end the war as he needs to show off his mediating
power in negotiation with Ukraine and Russia to American people. However, Russia recognizes his intention
accurately and has been strengthening to rush military attack against Ukraine
inversely. Russia also emphasizes to deploy
information warfare with backup of China, Iran, so on. I wonder how much is the objective figure of military
expenditure spent on the war and those usage in Ukraine and Russia. According to estimated data in news source as
of the early 2025, sum of war aid from Western countries up to 2024 to Ukraine reached
around $90 billion per year (of those, Japan-$6 billion aid/year making her
suffer serious inflation). On the other,
Russia’s war-related expense is assumed $70 billion annually. One very simple question is why Ukraine cannot
take superior militaristic stance against Russia regardless of such higher war-related
expense than Russia. Is Ukraine’s
military executing ability and logistics inferior to Russia? Or, is it because Russia has obtained hidden
aid from China, Iran and others? If the
former is true, Ukraine has to change military strategy fundamentally including
tactics how to weaken the influence of Russian nuclear warhead. In the case the latter reflects real entity of
the war, the unlawful aid should be shut down immediately. In either case, there is no doubt that all Western
allies should be united and integrated politically and militarily. However, the reality has shown different
aspects. At least in two years after the
beginning of the war in February, 2022, Germany was not proactive to quench
Russian military action, rather, took step-by-step or wait-and-see
attitude. In addition, Western allies even
have hesitated to propose a forceful bill at the UN to stop international
material and financial aid with punishment clause against Russia. The other aspect is a series of political
corruption by government officials inside Ukraine: e.g. some key policymakers are
said to be related to huge bribe around $100 million. There is a sharp contrast of command
structure on the two sides: Ukraine embraces internal organizational problem to
unitedly continue the war and accompanies non-integrated and-absolute backup
system from outside; Russia’s political and military power is aggregated to
Putin resolutely and he can take quick and authorized action at any moment and has
succeeded to acquire continuous physical aid from other autocratic
nations. In other words, Russia has
engaged in all-out battle from the beginning substantially, but Ukraine does
not. Western leaders should have noticed
Putin’s strict commitment since its initial stage of the war, but unfortunately,
they absurdly dreamed of an easy resolve by sticking to face-to-face talk. Anyway, Ukraine and its allies still lack an
absolute leadership with desperate resolution.
Now, Trump has strong intention for intervention to be a spotlight
leader, but his ultimate purpose is in business with his own design. Should the world future be entrusted by one
entrepreneur in line with his arbitrary and self-satisfied way of business? Is it everybody’s conclusion by forgetting existing
historical efforts for peace and democracy and consigning pivotal decision-making
to a gambler’s hand? (Takashi Higashi, President, TCS)
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